1- INTRODUCTION


The scope of the present study is to develop and establish a decision support system (DSS) for sustainable development and management of a real life large scale river basin system (Karun-Dez River System in Iran).
The Karun River is one of the most important and largest river system in Khuzestan province.

Khuzestan is a land of vast plains and high altitude. It has the greatest number of Hydropower Dams in the whole country, including the Dez, Shahid-Abbaspoor, Maroon, Karkheh and Godar Landar dams.
The study area covers the catchment of Karun and Dez rivers, with a total area of approximately 58,180 square km.





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2- STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM


The Karun river system is coming under increasing pressure to satisfy the demands for domestic, industrial, agricultural, environmental, navigation and hydro-electric power generation users, whilst at the same time maintain an adequate flow in the river systems both in terms of quantity and quality. It is foreseen that the increasing irrigation demands for agriculture of sugar cane development will result in increasingly polluting wastewater in the river flows.

River water quality has been affected by the return flows from all agricultural, commercial, industrial and human waste activities. Severe contamination occurs within river stretches in low flow conditions and before full mixing and dilution of pollutants occurs. The river status within towns, particularly Ahwaz, suffers from increased algae and plankton growth, which significantly affects aquatic ecology.
The hydraulic performance of the Karun and Dez Rivers demonstrate significant flood damaging potential to the adjacent fields and populations, especially in the southern reaches downstream of Ahwaz city. Short duration and high discharges are the characteristics of winter floods. The rate and magnitude of sediment deposition within the river system is increasing proportionally to the anticipated flood capacity. The fast development of multipurpose dams in the Karun and Dez rivers is placing additional pressure on the currently operational dams and structures. The developed and under construction schemes are in significant need of management tools to be established to assist planning, evaluation, controlling and operating reservoirs in the system and to size the flood control and conservation storage requirements for each scheme.

Development of DSS
The problem now is to develop suitable methodology and apply it to the Karun river system. It is noted that except Godar Landar Run off Riner scheme, Karun-1, Karun-3 and Dez dam and the diversions which are existing in the Karun river system, several other potential dam sites on the karun river are proposed. (Figure 1)

Karun-Dez decision support system is a computer based information system deigned to support decision makers interactively in thinking and making decisions about relatively unstructured problems.

The structure of the DSS is based on the following main three components

- Centralized data input/output storage interface system
- Hydrological system for inflow generation to the reservoirs and river systems.
- Modeling capabilities of Reservoir Optimization, Water Resources Management, Pollution control and flood forecasting.

The development of the DSS compromised the following key capabilities;

- Uncertainty and stochastic analysis for the model input and probability analysis of the model results.
- Optimization of the deducted uncertainty results to minimize the risk on the system constrains.
- Presentation of the operation scenarios and potential risks resulting from the optimization analysis.
- Tools to allow contemplation or decision to be taken to reduce the potential risks
- Dynamic real time interactive tailored to stakeholders needs.
- Integrated comprehensive databank module for the whole system

The main objectives of the Management Model are to optimize reservoir operations to maximize hydropower production, to improve flood control, to meet downstream deamands, and to control the water quality at selected locations throughout the river basin system.
The Decision Support System is developed to allow long, medium and short term operation of the Karun-Dez River Basin for 2 Scenarios (Existing & future development) and includes all the sub-models established throughout the study. interactive system will be developed to allow the access to the database input/output system.

The objective of Decision Support System is to produce optimum operating curves for the 7 reservoirs (exiting, under construction, planned). Optimization Engine is developed to maximize water allocation for multiple-objective water needs. The operation rule curve are established for monthly, 10-days, 2 weeks, weekly and daily operation periods.

In this study DSS is used for the optimum release of water from Dez, Bakhtiary, Gotvand Olya, Godar Landar, Abbaspour (Karun1), Karun3 and Karun4 reservoirs, provided that the following objective functions must be satisfied, subjected to a certain constraints

- Maximize hydropower generation
- Maximize firm energy
- Minimize shortage of hydropower supply
- Minimize shortage for agricultural, domestic, industrial water
- Minimize risks for water quality problem
- Minimize risks for flood damage in certain locations

Karun-Dez decision support system is an environment to run and integrate different mathematical model. It has been designed using the Microsoft Access programming environment which provides database capabilities that enables automatic saving of the different runs in one large database. It includes set of tools to manage the operation of Karun-Dez River System.The Karun-Dez Decision Support System Consists of Several Components.These are the modules such as Models and Optimization engines.

The major components of Karun river basin consist of the following items:

• Water Quality Management
• Online Water Quality Monitoring for 29 Stations at the key point of the river
• Water Resource Potential and Demands
• Power Planning Studies
• Flood Mitigation Studies
• River Transportation
• Integrated River Development Basin Plan
• River Management Optimization Model
• Development all models and a very flexible data base with GIS base

DSS have three major components, a database, a Model base and a User interface as shown in (Figure 2, 3 and 4).

 DSS Components and Database
Graphical User Interface (GUI), Database Management System, River Flow Forecasting Model (ARIMA), Deterministic Optimization Model, Stochastic Optimization Model, Water Balance Model (MIKE BASIN), Rainfall-Runoff Model (MIKE NAM), Water Quality Model (MIKE BASIN), Sediment Transport Model (HEC-6), Flood Routing Model (HEC-RAS), Power Model (PEBAL)

 DSS Models
The models; River Flow Forecasting Model, Water Balance Model (MIKE BASIN), Rainfall Run-Off Model (MIKE NAM), Water Quality Model (MAIKE BAISN-WQ), Sediment Transport Model (HEC-6), Flood Routing Model (HEC-RAS), Power Planning Model (PEBAL) and Their Applications.
 DSS interface

Decision Support System Menu Items, Creating A Process, Adding Models to the Process, A Multi-Model Process, Importing Model Files.



3- SOLUTION METHODOLOGY


Key issues of this methodology are:
• The definition of realistic water release polices; considering existing water allocation system;
• The use of applicable forecasting models for predicting future inflows;
• The setting of decision maker preferences and scenarios,
• Development of the operation domain including the all possible scenarios and parameter affect the water policies;
• Apply analytical multi-objective optimization for the maximization of expected objectives; and
• Analyses of the polices through sensitivity analysis, to provide additional modeling, uncertainty insights.
The DSS is composed of several modules:
A graphical user interface (GUI), A database management system, A river flow forecasting model, A deterministic optimization model, A stochastic optimization model, A water balance optimization and simulation model, A rainfall-runoff model, A water quality model, A sediment transport model, A flood routing model, A power planning model, Testing protocols for the forecasting-simulation and control of all the modules, operating alone or sequentially.
General layout of integrated river basin management and DSS structure are shown in (Figures 5 and 6).


The main objectives of the Management Model are to optimize reservoir operations to maximize hydropower production, to improve flood control, to meet downstream demands, and to control the water quality at selected locations throughout the river basin system. The Decision Support System is developed to allow long, medium and short term operation of the Karun and Dez River Basin and includes all the sub-models established throughout the study. Interactive system will be developed to allow the access to the database input/output system. The objective of Decision Support System is to produce optimum operating curves for the reservoirs (exiting and under construction). Optimization Engine is developed to maximize water allocation for multiple-objective water needs. The operation rule curves are established for monthly, 10-days, 2 weeks, weekly and daily operation periods.

The structure and contents of this paper aims to provide details of the approach and methodology for the following key components:

• Decision Support System (DSS)
• Deterministic Optimization Model for Karun Multiple & Multipurpose Reservoirs Systems
• Stochastic Optimization Model for Karun Multiple & Multipurpose Reservoirs Systems

The Decision Support System is developed to cover the following main characteristics;

-Allow short-term (daily) reservoir operation for monitoring, mid-term (e.g. weekly, 2-weeks and 10-days) reservoir operation for operation, and long term (e.g. monthly, seasonally, and annually) reservoir operation for planning.

-User friendly with GIS utility to enable ease of use.

-Integrate base study components of meteorology, hydrology, water resources potential, water demands, and social studies

-Represents all project developed models such as; rainfall-Runoff, reservoir simulation, river hydraulics, water quality, flood, and sediment analysis

-Optimization on the daily system operation to meet the users water demand

-Long term planning and prediction scenarios for low water quality, especially during summer seasons.

Final DSS consists of 3 main components.

1: It defines the scope of work and the methods followed to fulfill the requirements to achieve.

2: Multipurpose Reservoir System Operations; It consists of key Parameters in Water Resources Planning and Management, General Algebraic Modeling System Optimization for reservoir operation, deterministic optimization model, stochastic optimization model. The approaches, model details and programming techniques followed for the development of Karun-Dez river basin optimization engines are explained.

3: Decision Support System; It consists of Decision Support System components, system design such as: Data Subsystem for data acquisition, management and processing, Model Subsystem which include all the system models and programs for analysis, prediction and decision framework and Interface system, that includes the end-users units of computers terminal, network PCs, operating control facility, monitors for system components, ..etc

The modules in Decision Support System: A graphical user interface (GUI), a Database management system, a River Flow Forecasting model, a deterministic optimization model, a stochastic optimization model, a water balance optimization and simulation model, a rainfall-runoff model, a water quality model, a sediment transport model, a flood routing model, a power planning, are explained in terms data entry, output options, model run and user interface.

 Key Parameters in Water Resources Planning and Management

River basin system is a natural area of land that drains water, sediment, and dissolved material to a common receiving body or outlet. A river basin system is also an ecosystem with interacting natural components like soil, land, topography, climate. The functions and values provided by natural features are included in the development of a river basin system system. Political boundaries such as village, town, city, district, state, and country are part of a river basin system where the size of the river basin system or basin in each case becomes a determining factor. Therefore, the entire hydrological cycle and hence, each component of this cycle occurs within a natural unit namely a ‘river basin system’ and any economic development has to be planned and managed with respect to this natural unit for ensuring long-term sustainability.

Within a river basin system or basin, there are a variety of stakeholders (that is, interest and user groups) relying on this natural resource—their activities have a direct influence on water quality and quantity. The needs and impacts of each stakeholder on the natural functions of a river basin system need to be understood for making decisions regarding resource management and sustainable development. This also asks for a clear identification of the steps involved and the detailing of the requirements that adhere to specific legislation, regulation, and policy all of which are a requirement for an effective management plan. Therefore, a key to effective water management is to have in place an enabling framework at a river basin system/river basin scale and multi-stakeholder partnerships at all levels. This framework should reinforce the fact that nothing happens in isolation and that everything is connected by the land and water within the river basin system. Given the relationships and interdependencies that exist between land, water, and various stakeholders, a comprehensive, all-inclusive approach to considering the factors affecting water resources within a river basin system needs to be clearly understood. Any decisions regarding water resource management must be done in a socially, environmentally, and economically sustainable manner.

The basic questions that go in examining water resources sustainability are

1. How to know a basin?
2. How to ensure long-term water resource sustainability?
3. How to influence effective policy-making?
4.
There are critical steps in the process of answering these questions. These are given below.

Getting to know the river basin system Assessment: describe the river basin system, its size, and who is using it for what
Technical evaluation

Determine hydrology, land-use and other resources

Inventory of natural and man-made water bodies

1. Determine river basin system demographics and use of water resources Determining issues and concerns

2. Determine and prioritize river basin system’s issues and concerns
- Establish river basin system goals and objectives
- Conduct community/stakeholder outreach activities Action plan development -Identify and list possible approaches to obtaining the set goals
- Develop prioritized list of options, alternatives, and initiatives to implement
- List/identify available incentives

Obtain endorsement from all partners/ stakeholders/ public/ governments

1. Determine agency involvement regarding implementation
2. Determine river basin system plan success indicators/monitoring plan and costs

Develop communication/education plan

Integrated resource planning is a relatively new concept based on participation. It considers resource users as a stakeholder, and it provides for formal integration and coordination among the several sectors that have regulatory responsibilities for water resource matters. It is the process that results in the development of a comprehensive water resource management plan. It defines and gives balanced considerations to supply and demand management planning alternatives. However, the main problem is how to implement these concepts, identify, develop and operationalise the required types of supports.



4- RESERVOIR OPTIMIZATION


- Deterministic optimization
- Stochastic optimization
- Planning period and time interval, (Monthly, 10-datys, 2-weeks, Daily)
- Optimization assumptions and data
Number of reservoir need to be optimized, Volume-area-elevation relationship for each reservoir, Hydropower characteristics (Discharge-Level-Hydropower production), Water demand for agriculture at point G at time t, Evaporation rates at each reservoir i at time t, Inflow rate at each location i at time t with its probability, Hydropower production required at time t, Minimum water requirement at point G at time t for water quality standards, Initial value for volume at time 0 for each reservoir i.
- Decision and state variables
Karun-Dez decision support system applications

1- CURRENT CONDITION APPLICATIONS

- Existing irrigation demand, Influence of different irrigation demands
- Existing domestic water demand, Influence of different domestic water demands
- Existing industrial demand, Influence of different industrial demands
- Existing dams (Dez, Karun3, Karun1, Godar Landar) Initial water level, Final water level, Efficiency of hydropower plan, The number of hydropower units in operation, Hydropower capacity
- Influence of different power demand scenarios for the existing hydropower plants
- Influence of reservoir inflows into the system, Minimum, maximum reservoir inflows and their influence on the system, Examination of different rainfall scenarios, MIKE NAM rainfall-runoff scenarios, extreme conditions

2- FUTURE CONDITION APPLICATIONS

- future reservoirs, Initial water level, Final water level, Efficiency of hydropower plant, The number of hydropower units in operation, Hydropower capacity, Influence of Karun4 dam into water balance, Influence of Bakhtiary dam into water balance, Influence of Gotvand Olya dam into water balance, Combined influence of the future dams with different combinations
-
- Future irrigation demands, Influence of different irrigation demands
- Future domestic demands, Influence of different domestic water demands
- Future industrial demands, Influence of different industrial demands
- Influence of different power demand scenarios for the future hydropower plants. Combined influence of the future hydropower plants with different combinations
- Influence of reservoir inflows for future reservoirs, Minimum, maximum reservoir inflows and their influence on the systems
- Examination of different rainfall scenarios for future reservoirs, MIKE NAM rainfall-runoff scenarios, extreme conditions

Stochastic optimization

Using the stochastic optimization model, the user can examine the following scenarios:

- Different inflows levels with different probabilities for each reservoir
- Different initial, and ending condition for each reservoir
- Different hydropower efficiency
- Different size of the penstock for water pass through the turbines
- Different water loss scenarios including different evaporation rates
- Different scenarios for agriculture demand, industrial and municipal demand, and power demand
- Different constrains regarding maximum, minimum head allowed for each reservoir
- Different constraints regarding maximum and minimum discharge from each reservoir for environment factors (fishes, soil degradation, channel maintenance).
- The set of operational reservoirs.
-
DSS Basic Blocks

Database (Tables & Relationships), Forms – GUI, Code – Integrating Forms & Tables, External Models, Forecasting (ARIMA), Optimization (Deterministic & Stochastic), Power Generation (PEBAL), Flood Routing Model (HEC-RAS), Sediment Transport (HEC-6), Water Allocation & Quality (MIKE BASIN, Rainfall-Runoff (MIKE NAM)



5- CONCLUSION


In this study an attempt was made to combine the major advances of systems analysis by optimization-simulation models and other sub models and a very flexible database which are to be used for analyzing a complex water resources system to achieve a sustainable development in Karun-Dez river basin system.
Experience of this study shows that large problem with complex configuration of water resources systems and considering physical, economic and operational conditions is a very difficult task and can be solved with a DSS system.
DSS which was developed is as a very flexible tools for decision makers and all stakeholders, whit changing the targets easily they would be able to predict what will happen in the River basins, therefore now decision makers with respect to DSS are able to have a significant role in the integrated development of the River basin, because considering to major components which was involved in this study, to overcome the problem, DSS has enough ability to solve the problem.
The following conclusions are:

1. The existence of significant hydroelectric power and water storage potential on the Karun river system is confirmed and which can be developed on the Karun River above existing irrigation diversion dam at Gotvand up to the source of the river. As well as there is a promising potential for further development for irrigation.

2. It was shown that sufficient water exist in the Karun basin to satisfy water supply need for the existing development to a high degree of reliability.


3. For the full development scenario, no irrigation failure were indicated. The waters of the Karun and Dez rivers are ultimately to be used for hydroelectric power generation in the mountains; for irrigation, industrial and domestic water supply in the plains; and for salinity control and navigation at the tail end near the Persian Gulf.



REFERENCES


1- Daniel P. Loucks, Jery R. Stedinger & Douglas A. Haith (1981). "Water Resources Systems Planning and Analysis"
2- Cowan, M. S., and Bowling, C. V. (1988). "Decision Support for Central Valley Project Operation" Proc. Computerized Decision Support System for Water Managers, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colo.
3- Barnes, G. W., and Chung, F. I. (1986). "Operational Planning for California Water System." J. Water Resour. Plng. Mgmt., ASCE, 112(1), 71-86.
4- Sadeghian, M. S., and Srivastava, D. K. (1995). "System Analysis of Complex Water Resources Systems." Ph.D thesis, Roorkee University, Roorkee, India.
5- Grygier, J. C., and Stedinger, J. R. (1985). "Algorithms for Optimizing Hydropower System Operation" Water Resour. Res., 21(1), 1-10.
6- Mahab Ghodss Consulting Engineers Company, All Data, Information and Documents, Documentary Center.


Dr. M.S. SADEGHIAN
Director of Research and Development Department
Mahab Ghodss Consulting Engineers
Tehran-Iran

Reporter : mehdi akbarsefat

َApproved by : 28 , First name : mehdi akbarsefat

Create date : 7 Sep 2010 17:12

Id : 20521

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